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Canada, Sweden Send Military Instructors to Train Ukrainian Troops: Why is the West Fanning Flames?_我的网站

A |     As Canada and Sweden send their first groups of military instructors to the UK to provide training for the Ukrainian forces, it is likely that “the arrival of more NATO instructors will be used by media outlets loyal to the Kiev regime as another little brick in their attempt to build a wall of false 'wunder-waffen' hopes among both the military and the civilian population," former MEP Nick Griffin told Sputnik.,On Friday, Ottawa and Stockholm announced the deployment of their first batches of military instructors to Britain, in what came amid Russia's ongoing special military operation in Ukraine. The deployment followed Canada’s Defence Minister Anita Anand stating last week that Ottawa had authorized the dispatch of up to 225 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel to Britain to train Ukrainian forces, in line with a new program unveiled by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in June.,She added that CAF servicemen will be sent to the UK for an initial period of four months, and that the Ukrainian troops will be trained on the basics of soldiering “related to frontline combat, weapons handling, first aid, field craft, patrol tactics, and include the law of armed contact.”,Anand said that apart from the training, Canada would provide the Ukrainian military with 39 armored vehicles, which she claimed are fitted with “additional, modern, state of the art armor and machine guns.”,UK Arms to Ukraine Will 'Not Change Anything', Says Former Think-Tank Analyst1 July, 14:45 GMT,Earlier this week, the Finnish Defense Ministry said that they would send about 20 service personnel to the UK to take part in a training program for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The move was preceded by the Swedish military announcing that it will deploy up to 120 military instructors to Britain within the framework of the program.,Meeting Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev in mid-June, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson offered to launch a training program for Ukrainian forces, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days. He urged other nations in the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and Canada to join the initiative.,The JEF, which was launched in 2014, is a UK-led expeditionary force consisting of Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway.,The UK government noted on its website that under the program, “each soldier would spend three weeks on the training course, learning battle winning skills for the front line, as well as basic medical training, cyber-security and counter explosive tactics.”,According to No 10, the program will “train and drill the Armed Forces of Ukraine using battle-proven British Army expertise, allowing them to accelerate their deployment, rebuild their forces, and scale-up their resistance” to Russian troops.,Griffin said in this vein that Western countries are seeking to prolong the Ukraine conflict due to a whole array of factors, not least “the profits of the military-industrial complex, hostility to independent Russia of the neo-con and corporate lobbies, as well as the opportunity to use the conflict as an excuse for advancing the Western elite's insanely destructive decarbonisation agenda.”,He stressed that as far as Canada is concerned, “there is one extra factor: the country has the world's biggest concentration of Ukrainians, behind only the Ukraine itself and Russia.”,According to him, “the community's politics have been heavily influenced by Banderista ideology and hatred, and the Ukrainian lobby is well-organized, with plenty of politicians in receipt of campaign donations and back-handers. In a corrupted, kleptocratic democracy like Canada, money talks.”,RussiaUK Pledges $1.2 Billion Military Aid to Ukraine, Reports Say30 June, 07:08 GMT,Griffin suggested that Canada and Sweden sending their military instructors to the UK might be “far more of a political gesture and propaganda tool for the Kiev regime, than it is a genuine military factor” to change the situation on the ground in Ukraine.,“Training troops properly takes very much longer than Ukraine's unfortunate conscripts are getting before being thrown into the meat-grinder. Even well-trained troops only take a little longer to kill when the capabilities of the two sides are as far apart as they now are in Donbass, so [Canadian Prime Minister Justin] Trudeau's aggressive gesture will change nothing on the ground,” the former MEP insisted.,Britain has delivered hundreds of millions of pounds’ worth of military equipment and training support to Ukraine since 2014, including through secret “Operation Orbital”, over the course of which more than 22,000 Ukrainian troops were trained in the use of portable anti-tank missiles and other weapons.,Currently, the UK remains the second-largest supplier of weaponry to Ukraine after the US, providing Kiev with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, missile boats, armored vehicles, and long-range artillery.,The Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly warned that the UK would evoke an "immediate and proportional response" from Moscow if it continued to provoke Kiev into launching attacks on Russian soil using British-made weapons, amid Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.,The operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin on 24 February following the Donbass republics’ request to protect them from Kiev’s atrocities.。    　　美国财政部长贝森特上周宣布将通过扩大长债回购来压低美国融资成本，这一突如其来的计划虽然引发了关于其最终成效的激烈辩论，但关键的市场指标与机构持仓数据却似乎表明，该举措已开始初步显现成效。　　数据显示，自贝森特上周宣布该计划以来，美国国债的表现已超越同期限利率互换，30年期的两者利差缩窄至了今年2月以来的最低水平。基准美债收益率在美国财政部宣布将长期债券回购规模“至少翻倍”后，经历了最初的剧烈波动，随后呈现震荡走低态势。　　花旗集团美国利率策略主管Jason Williams表示，“这种全新的财政部‘看跌期权’为市场提供了潜在的政策背书，从而改善了持有长端国债的风控不对称性。贝森特最近的一系列举措——包括增加回购规模以及干预日元汇率，无不表明他正准备不惜一切代价来实现其既定目标。”　　周一，美国媒体报道称，美国财政部可能会动用其存放在美联储的现金——即财政部一般账户(TGA)——来为这笔扩大的长期国债购买计划提供资金支持。这一消息进一步提振了市场情绪，而国际原油价格的回落，也同步为债市提供了上涨动力。　　尽管长期融资成本仍徘徊在多年高位，且推动全球收益率上行的诸多结构性因素依然未变，但市场近期走势表明，若非贝森特的干预，收益率本会更高。　　即便这项扩大的回购计划长期效果仍存疑虑——例如贝森特“恩师”、亿万富翁投资者德鲁肯米勒等权威人士便公开批评贝森特的干预是一个错误——但众多交易员已清晰意识到市场上出现了一位“强力买家”，因而普遍不愿贸然站在“贝森特看跌期权”的对立面。　　期权市场也呈现出类似的主题——过去一周市场呈现出明显的看涨倾向，这表现为追踪长期美债的国债期货看涨期权持仓量相较于看跌期权急剧攀升。相比之下，较短期限美债期货的波动率偏度(skews)则继续维持在过去几个月普遍处于的中性水平附近。　　“当前的‘操作’集中在长端，而市场目前的担忧——如果可以这么说的话——是长债收益率可能会因干预而暴跌，”R.J. OBrien & Associates的衍生品经纪人Alex Manzara分析道。　　利率互换是一种常见的衍生品合约，交易双方约定交换未来的利息现金流，通常是以浮动利率交换固定利率。企业和机构投资者常利用它来规避利率风险，例如将其支付端与未来的负债进行匹配。在美国，这类合约通常与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩，其中30年期互换利率精准反映了市场对未来三十年平均利率水平的预期——这使其成为一种在金融属性上与30年期美国国债高度对标的产品。　　近年来，随着全球政府债券供给量急剧膨胀，美债收益率与互换利率之间的分化急剧扩大。这种利差走势吸引了大量对冲基金入场做空或做多互换利差。美联储研究人员估算，对冲基金在这类策略上的持仓规模已从2022年的不足500亿美元飙升至去年的创纪录水平——3050亿美元。　　尽管目前30年期美国国债收益率仍远高于互换利率，但贝森特的表态已带来了一定程度的边际修复。10年期互换利差同步迎来收窄，两者间距缩窄了3个基点，降至约38个基点。

B | 　　ING Groep NV纽约地区研究主管Padhraic Garvey表示，互换利差的收窄充分反映了市场对“只要财政部认为政策合适，未来完全可能一而再、再而三地追加回购”这一预期。　　当然，客观来看，近期长债收益率的回落，还仅能算是对长期美债融资成本多年来的攀升态势构成的微幅修正。被贝森特点名作为特朗普政府重点调控目标的10年期美债收益率目前仍交易在4.6%上方，接近2025年初以来的最高水平；30年期美债收益率则维持在5.2%附近，距离2007年以来的历史高位仅一步之遥。　　Pimco公共政策主管Libby Cantrill总结道：“虽然在收益率曲线长端实施回购能在技术上压低收益率，但导致美债收益率居高不下的根本性矛盾——尤其是美国结构性预算赤字的显著增加，这需要大量国债供应来为美国债务提供资金——在短期内根本无法改变。”（文章来源：财联社）。

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