一 | 全球关键“油阀”的形势传来新进展。 据伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台8月25日晚报道，伊朗外交部副部长加里巴巴迪表示，根据伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡航线新达成的谅解，进入波斯湾的航线将途经伊朗水域，离开波斯湾的航线将途经阿曼和伊朗水域，任何军舰不得通过该海峡，只允许商船通行。 BRUSSELS -- Police in Belgium on Tuesday shot dead a suspected Tunisian extremist accused of killing two Swedish soccer fans in a brazen shooting on a Brussels street before disappearing into the night. Hours after a manhunt began in the Belgian capital, Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden told broadcaster VRT: “We have the good news that we found the individual.” She said that the weapon believed to have been used in the shooting was recovered.The federal prosecutor’s office was more cautious, saying in a text message to The Associated Press: “There are strong presumptions but no certainties” that the man was the shooter. He was shot by police in the Schaerbeek neighborhood where the rampage had taken place.Amateur videos posted on social media of Monday’s attack showed a man wearing an orange fluorescent vest pull up on a scooter, take out a large weapon and open fire on passersby before chasing them into a building to gun them down.“Last night, three people left for what was supposed to be a wonderful soccer party. Two of them lost their lives in a brutal terrorist attack,” Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said at a news conference just before dawn. “Their lives were cut short in full flight, cut down by extreme brutality.”De Croo said his thoughts were with the victims’ families and that he had sent his condolences to the Swedish prime minister. Security has been beefed up in the capital, particularly around places linked to the Swedish community in the city.“The attack that was launched yesterday was committed with total cowardice,” De Croo said. Not far from the scene of the shooting, the Belgium-Sweden soccer match in the Belgian national stadium was suspended at halftime and the 35,000 fans held inside as a precaution while the attacker was at large.Prosecutor Eric Van Duyse said “security measures were urgently taken to protect the Swedish supporters” in the stadium. More than two hours after the game was suspended, a message flashed on the big stadium screen saying, “Fans, you can leave the stadium calmly.” Stand after stand emptied onto streets filled with police as the search for the attacker continued.“Frustrated, confused, scared. I think everyone was quite scared,” said Caroline Lochs, a fan from Antwerp.De Croo said the assailant was a Tunisian man living illegally in Belgium who used a military weapon to kill the two Swedes and shoot a third, who is being treated for ”severe injuries."Federal Prosecutor Frederic Van Leeuw described how the suspect, a 45-year-old man who wasn't identified, had posted a video online claiming to have killed three Swedish people. The suspect is alleged to have said in the video that, for him, the Quran is “a red line for which he is ready to sacrifice himself.”Sweden raised its terror alert to the second-highest level in August after a series of public Quran-burnings by an Iraqi refugee living in Sweden resulted in threats from Islamic militant groups.Belgian prosecutors said overnight that nothing suggested the attack was linked to the latest war between Israel and Hamas.Police overnight raided a building in the Brussels neighborhood of Schaerbeek where the man was thought be staying but did not find him. Sweden’s foreign ministry sent out a text message to subscribers in Belgium asking them “to be vigilant and to carefully listen to instructions from the Belgian authorities.”According to Justice Minister Vincent Van Quickenborne, the suspect was denied asylum in 2019. He was known to police and had been suspected of involvement of human trafficking, living illegally in Belgium and of being a risk to state security.Information provided to the Belgian authorities by an unidentified foreign government suggested that the man had been radicalized and intended to travel abroad to fight in a holy war. But the Belgian authorities were not able to establish this, so he was never listed as dangerous.The man was also suspected of threatening a person in an asylum center and a hearing on that incident had been due to take place on Tuesday, Van Quickenborne said.Belgian Asylum State Secretary Nicole de Moor said the man disappeared after his asylum application was refused so the authorities were unable to locate him to organize his deportation.A terror alert for Brussels was raised overnight to 4, the top of Belgian's scale, indicating an extremely serious threat. It previously stood at 2, which means the threat was average. The alert level for the rest of the country was raised to 3. De Croo said that Belgium would never submit to such attacks. “Moments like this are a heavy ordeal," he told reporters, "but we are never going to let ourselves be intimidated by them.” ___Associated Press writer Sam Petrequin contributed to this report.。 联合声明说，两国已就恢复霍尔木兹海峡安全通航达成框架方案，内容包括设立一条临时联合航运通道，以及开展航道排雷作业项目。美国总统特朗普近日确认，霍尔木兹海峡国际水域内的所有水雷都已被清除或引爆。 巴基斯坦军方和伊朗安全部门消息人士则透露，美国与伊朗已就停火协议条款达成共识，其中包括霍尔木兹海峡自由通航。
二 | 尽管霍尔木兹海峡主要深水通航区几乎全部位于阿曼领海范围内，但伊朗拥有完全的控制权。 此前霍尔木兹海峡一度出现三条不同航线。
三 | 第一条航线位于霍尔木兹海峡北部，由伊朗控制。
四 | 第二条航线穿过海峡中部，是霍尔木兹海峡受阻前的常规国际航道；第三条航线则位于海峡南部，途经阿曼附近海域，该航线由阿曼、美国和国际海事组织协调运行。 本月早些时候，伊朗与阿曼已就霍尔木兹海峡拟定航道的地理坐标达成一致。 此前阿曼曾提出对等份额的联合管理机制，伊朗则坚持入港航线须完全经过伊朗水域，最终双方以伊方诉求为核心达成了坐标共识，同时明确拒绝第三方介入海峡管理事务。 伊朗波斯湾海峡管理局（PGSA）于8月23日发表声明说，违反伊朗关于霍尔木兹海峡航行规定的船只将面临罚款、扣押或没收等限制措施。 PGSA是伊朗在今年5月专门设立的霍尔木兹海峡官方管理机构，运营主体为“伊朗最高国家安全委员会”和“伊斯兰革命卫队海军”。其主权监管权还延伸至通过海峡的海底管道和数据电缆。美方已将该机构列入制裁名单，禁止全球企业与其开展美元结算交易。 即日起，往返波斯湾的货主在租船前必须查阅PGSA发布的“违规船只”名单，以避免潜在问题。任何船只如与“违规船只”合作，也将被列入该名单。如需将船只从名单中移除，必须提交正式申请并说明理由。 伊朗曾多次表示，计划对穿越海峡的船只收取“海上服务费”，而非通行费。
五 | 但至少最近一个月，伊朗方面已不再强调收费问题。 船舶追踪机构克普勒公司最新数据显示，8月24日通过霍尔木兹海峡的商船数量降至3个多月以来最低水平。
六 | 而多家国际航运机构证实霍尔木兹海峡目前仍未通航。中国两大国有航运企业自7月底以来已基本避开霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡，改在阿曼湾及富查伊拉附近通过船对船转运方式接收原油。 中信建投则指出，伊朗拒绝开放霍尔木兹海峡叠加胡塞武装袭击货轮事件，导致亚洲买家转向阿曼湾采购原油，区域内超大型油船运力紧缺，日租金逼近50万美元，中型以上油船成为风险溢价集中载体。 在外交方面，美国国务卿鲁比奥近日向多个盟国外交官员表示，美国“目前”不会主动对伊朗发动新一轮军事打击，而是将重点转向其他施压手段。 特朗普政府当前对伊政策主要包括：暂时避免对伊朗采取新的军事行动；通过美国海上封锁和财政部新制裁加大伊朗经济压力；尽可能提高经霍尔木兹海峡进入全球市场的石油运输量等。 另据知情人士透露，美国正开始向部分此前因局势紧张而撤离，或缩减人员规模的中东外交机构派遣人员返岗。分析指出，此举表明，华盛顿方面认为近期伊朗相关冲突进一步升级的风险已经下降。 昨天，美国财政部宣布了旨在切断伊朗“所有经济命脉”的多项经济制裁措施，并扩大“二级制裁”，以迫使伊朗重返谈判桌。返回，查看更多。
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