加勒比海盗

原标题：重磅！今晚美国公布8月通胀报告，预计8.5%降至8%，延续降温趋势作为本周首个重磅数据，今晚美国公布8月通胀报告，预计会延续降温的趋势，从8.5%降至8.1%，核心CPI年率预计维持在5.9%；可能会再次显示较低的环比增长，甚至可能录得负增长（市场预期为-0.1%）。    "The 38% of US adults who say they are 'extremely proud' to be American is the lowest in Gallup's trend, which began in 2001," the pollster said in a press release accompanying the survey.,The result marks the historical low for "extremely proud" by 4 points, but is well below the average of 55%, the release added.,The poll also found 27% of Americans are "very proud," 22% moderately, 9% only a little, and 4% not at all.,The highest readings followed the 9/11 terrorist attacks, when America was awash in patriotism, Gallup said. But researchers note that extreme national pride in the US has been trending downward since 2015.,In terms of partisan breakdown, the pollsters found record-low national pride among Republicans and independents, with Republicans' extreme national pride currently at its lowest point in the trend at 58 percent.,Likewise, independents' extreme pride, which stands at 34 percent, is also the lowest on record for this category. And all three major party groups show double-digit declines in pride versus 2013, with Democrats' 30-point decline the largest.,The current 32-point gap in Democratic versus Republican pride is larger than the historical average though smaller than the record-high 54-point gap in 2019, according to the release.,All groups have become less inclined to say they are proud of their country in recent years, potentially due to deepening political divisions, gridlock in Washington, racial tensions, COVID-19, and inflation, Gallup concluded.。

B | 能源价格下跌令美国7月通胀率从四十年高位降至通胀开始飙升以来的最低水平，7月环比增速在连续25个月增长后持平，因为能源价格继续缓和，根据EIA的数据，8月份汽油价格大幅下跌。

C | 与此同时，机票价格走低，二手车和酒店价格回落，房租上涨也有所放缓。但除此之外，美联储将密切关注食品价格的波动，以寻找潜在通胀正在缓解的迹象，数据显示，一系列商品和服务价格仍远高于一年前的水平，如果这些关键领域物价压力不减，美联储不会轻易放缓加息。但关注随着供应状况的改善传导至消费者，未来几个月食品价格可能会回落。美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，在放缓或暂停加息之前，希望看到明确且有说服力的证据表明物价压力正在减弱。在上周的讲话中，这一点得到强调，表示“坚定地致力于”抗击通胀。不过即便连续放缓，当前说通胀已经过了峰值还为时尚早，特别是考虑冬季能源价格会因为需求再次被推升，作为影响通胀的关键组成部分，很容易将物价再次推向新高。而在通胀公布前，隔夜美股市场因最新通胀预期连续放缓而获得提振，纽约联储的月度消费者预期调查显示，8月消费者认为未来12个月的通胀率料为5.75%，为2021年10月以来最低。消费者还预计未来三年的平均物价增幅为2.8%，为2020年底以来最低。美联储官员曾表示，控制通胀预期是确保通胀率在某个时候回落至2%目标的重要组成部分。旧金山联邦储备银行上周发布的一份研究报告称，美国家庭对未来通胀路径的预期越来越多地影响工资要求。

D | 美联储本月大概率加息75个基点，如果通胀连续放缓，但是放缓势头温和，将不足以改变美联储继续大幅加息的预期，所以今晚市场的波动视乎通胀最终结果和市场预期的出入，尤其是核心通胀的变化。如果通胀连续放缓，美债收益率预计跟随向下，美股向上寻求动力，继续刷新本月的高位。而美元昨晚已经先作调整，如果通胀降温超预期，美元可能进一步下探108，届时金价会获得更大动力延续反弹以1740美元上方为目标。

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