木棉花的春天

原标题：杨德龙：美联储继续加息可能陷入滞胀，意味着今年美股无牛市出品 | 搜狐智库编辑 | 郑青春9月14日，受美国通胀数据回落不及预期、美联储货币政策或继续大幅收紧等因素影响，美股三大指数经历2020年6月11日以来最大跌幅。    At more than 1,500 meters above sea level, Tianmen Mountain in central China's Zhangjiajie offers summer temperatures of just 22 to 26 degrees Celsius, drawing a steady stream of visitors.
Among them are growing numbers of European travelers, like Italian Giancarlo Marino. Escaping the relentless summer heat in his hometown, he traveled to China with friends in search of cooler weather.
"Here you can feel the breeze, and while you're resting up on the mountain, you can even buy ice-cold drinks from the many vendors. It's thoughtful and relaxing," he said.
As extremely high temperatures grip many parts of the world this summer, China is emerging as an unexpected destination to avoid the soaring temperatures. With more convenient entry policies and a host of tourism-friendly measures, the country is drawing international visitors in surprising new ways.
NICHE ATTRACTIONS
Jizhou District in north China's Tianjin Municipality is usually known among Beijing residents as a weekend escape. Few would expect to encounter overseas tourists there, let alone visitors from Argentina.
Argentine traveler Michael visited Jizhou during his trip to China to enjoy the mountain scenery around the Huangyaguan section of the Great Wall.
For him, the "coolness" of Jizhou was not just about the pleasant temperature, but also about immersing himself in nature and experiencing rural life.
"The environment here is beautiful, and you can even see the Great Wall from the guesthouse," he said.
Local guesthouse owner Zhang Wei has noticed a growing number of foreign visitors seeking a deeper understanding of local life instead of simply checking off famous attractions.
"We've lately seen a clear increase in overseas guests. Many like to combine countryside experiences with natural scenery, allowing them to experience China in a more in-depth way," Zhang said.
Dutch tourist Noa is another traveler seeking out niche experiences. On a recent independent trip to Nanjing in east China's Jiangsu Province, Noa and friends made a point of visiting local produce markets and public parks, including matchmaking corners where parents gather to find partners for their children, to observe daily life up close.
"Many of the vegetables here are things I've never seen back home. It's really interesting," Noa said.
China's rapid economic and social development is also reshaping inbound tourism. Slovenian tourist Rainer Grega, visiting China for the first time, said he hopes to tour major Chinese technology companies.
"Many Chinese companies and brands are well-known overseas, so I'm really looking forward to visiting the headquarters of some of them. It would be fascinating to tour an electric-vehicle factory or see how those advanced robots are manufactured," he said.
According to a representative of a Suzhou-based international travel agency, foreign visitors are increasingly planning multi-city itineraries, while younger independent travelers, trips to smaller cities and rural areas, and longer stays have all become notable trends.
"Nowadays, many foreign visitors venture into city neighborhoods and rural villages to experience authentic Chinese life. From vibrant urban nightlife to rural revitalization, a vivid, multi-dimensional China is being increasingly shared with the world," said Wu Guoping, president of the Wuxi Tourism Association.
MORE OPEN STANCE
For many overseas visitors, China's increasingly convenient entry policies have provided an important guarantee for more flexible and in-depth travel.
China currently offers unilateral visa-free entry to nationals of 50 countries, including Slovenia and Italy.
"Thanks to the 30-day visa-free policy, you can come whenever you want -- just book a flight and go," Grega said. He added that transfers between airports and high-speed rail stations were seamless, making detailed travel planning largely unnecessary.
Marino echoed the view, saying the visa-free policy was a major reason for choosing China.
"It feels like the policy is becoming more and more foreigner-friendly. You can tell that China is opening its arms and genuinely welcoming more people to visit and learn about the country," he said.
Data from the National Immigration Administration (NIA) showed that China recorded 22.91 million inbound foreign visits in the first half of this year, up 20.4 percent year on year. Of those, 77.7 percent were made under visa-free entry facilitation policies.
China is also expanding the coverage of its 240-hour visa-free transit policy. According to an NIA announcement released on Aug. 20, citizens of Kyrgyzstan and Vietnam became eligible for the 240-hour visa-free transit policy and the 30-day visa-free entry policy for Hainan Province starting Aug. 20. The move increased the number of countries covered by the 240-hour visa-free transit policy to 57.
Vietnamese student Do Thi Huyen My, now in her second year at Hainan University, happily welcomed the new policy.
"I think the policy will definitely attract more Vietnamese tourists to China, especially to Hainan," she said.
"For me personally, it also means my family can visit me in Hainan more conveniently while enjoying a vacation here. By the time I graduate, my parents, relatives and friends will also be able to attend my graduation ceremony without going through complicated visa procedures," My said.
REFINED SERVICES MATTER
As inbound visitors become increasingly diverse and venture beyond traditional destinations, new opportunities have emerged for China's tourism industry, alongside higher expectations for service quality.
The city of Suzhou in Jiangsu Province, for instance, recently introduced a package of incentive measures to boost inbound tourism, offering rewards to travel agencies and online travel platforms that manage to organize overnight stays for foreign tourists and expatriates, or arrange one-day tours, with the annual reward up to 3 million yuan (about 442,000 U.S. dollars). Senior tour guides who manage to cultivate or recruit foreign-language guides are also eligible for incentives.
However, experts warned that feedback from some foreign visitors suggests that information access and language services remain weak links amid the boom of inbound tourism, which underscores the need to improve tourism services for international guests.
Wu Guoping suggested building a more comprehensive support system by developing multilingual digital platforms that seamlessly connect transportation, accommodation, dining, shopping and attractions, making travel planning and consumption more convenient.
To that end, Shanghai has recently launched a type of integrated smart tourism service kiosk that combines abundant online and offline resources.
Resembling a telephone booth, the facility provides access to 14,000 ticketing and shopping links, more than 20,000 dining venues and over 7,500 hotels and guesthouses. Powered by an AI travel assistant, it offers personalized recommendations, real-time interpretation and AI-generated travel journals. Its foreign bank card payment system supports 10 languages and more than 120 currencies.
Zhangjiajie is also improving services to match its surging international guests. From January to July this year, the city received 860,700 inbound visitors from 195 countries and regions, up 19.01 percent year on year. Tourism foreign exchange revenue reached 98.52 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 40.52 percent.
Despite the rapid growth, a previous survey in the Wulingyuan Scenic Area found that fewer than one-third of frontline staff could communicate proficiently in a foreign language.
The scenic area has since partnered with local universities to compile English-, Korean- and other foreign-language learning handbooks, while organizing evening classes for tourism workers.
Chen Heng, a 52-year-old publicity officer and one of the evening school participants, has even purchased language-learning software at his own expense and practices English pronunciation by reading aloud with a chopstick in his mouth.
"Zhangjiajie boasts world-class natural scenery. Our service quality has to keep pace as well," he said.
。道指跌3.94%，标普500指数跌4.32%，纳指跌5.16%，均结束“四连涨”。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，受到隔夜美股暴跌的影响，A股市场出现了震荡调整的走势，但是跌幅并不大，相对美股来说比较抗跌。由于美国通胀数据回落不及预期，美联储货币政策可能会继续大幅收紧，9月份美联储再次加息75个基点的可能性大幅增加。美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比上涨8.3%，再度强化了美联储持续激进加息的预期。美国总统拜登承认控制通胀需要花费更多时间和决心。

二 | 杨德龙对此分析，8月美国消费者价格指数CPI同比涨幅回落至8.3%，7月份数据为8.5%，通胀水平虽然再次回落，但是仍然处于历史高位，回落幅度不大。环比来看，8月CPI增值0.1%，而剔除食品和能源成分的核心CPI环比涨0.6%，同比涨6.3%，这说明美联储虽然今年四次加息，加息斜率历史上罕见，但是仍然没有真正的将通胀降下来。“下周三美联储将举行9月份联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议，这次公布的通胀数据是会前披露的最后一份重要数据。市场预期美联储将继续大幅加息75个基点来抑制通胀，并且未来或将继续维持激进紧缩政策，这对于股市来说是不利的。美股结束四连阳出现大幅杀跌，即反映了这样的预期。

三 | ”杨德龙说。他指出，美联储制定的长期中性目标通胀率为2%，现在离2%还有很远的距离。经过3月、5月、6月、7月4次加息，包括6月和7月连续两次大幅加息75个基点，联邦基准利率目前已经提高到2.25%到2.5%，9月份如果再次加息75个基点，联邦基准利率将提升到3%以上。这无疑对美国经济增长也会形成比较明显的影响，造成经济增速下滑，陷入滞胀，即经济停滞通货膨胀的状态。通胀无牛市，也意味着美股今年以来的表现应该不会太好。“隔夜美股惨遭血洗，道指狂泻约1000点，反映出投资者对于通胀居高不下的担忧。美元指数应声大涨，突破109。短期国债收益率飙升，两年期国债收益率一度飙升12个基点至3.69%，这些都反映出市场对于美联储加息的预期越来越强烈。”杨德龙表示，相对而言，我国当前通胀水平不高，一直控制在3%以内的良性通胀水平，这也为我国货币政策保持独立性提供了一定的基础。杨德龙分析称，美联储大幅加息使得美元指数飙升，而非美货币出现贬值。人民币汇率在隔夜也一度逼近7.0指数关口，这一定程度上压缩了央行宽松货币政策的空间。中美货币政策偏差是人民币汇率出现短期贬值的一个重要因素，预计在稳增长的政策目标之下，年底之前央行还是以较为宽松的货币政策为主，但是再次降息的可能性已经减小，更多的可能会通过实施公开市场操作来释放流动性。返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：